BJP to retain Belapur

The Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Manda Mhatre will be the BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI(A) alliance candidate of the Belapur constituency in Thane district of Maharashtra State in the forthcoming Assembly election scheduled to be held in October or November later this year, as per the seat sharing formula finalized by BJP and SS leaders yesterday.

Manda Mhatre

BJP will contest all 125 seats it won in the last Assembly polls and SS will contest all the 63 seats it won. 18 seats will be allocated to the other partners in the alliance. The 8 independent seats owing allegiance to the BJP will contest from the BJP quota of 135 seats. SS will also contest 135 seats.

The Belapur assembly constituency of Thane district in Maharashtra is simmering with dissent between the major ruling alliance partners, the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiv Sena, and could have been a bone of contention between the major alliance partners – BJP and SS.

BJP

The Chief Minister of Maharashtra Devendra Fadnavis released the work report of the sitting BJP legislator Manda Mhatre at a gala Shankar Mahadevan concert in Nerul, Navi Mumbai on May 31. He lauded her for her pursuance in resolving issues of the constituency and the citizens. He called upon her to reach this report to every resident in the constituency.

Her NGO, Shree Govardhani Sarvajanik Seva Sanstha, that organized the concert donated Rs.11 lakhs to the CM Relief Fund for the drought affected in the State.

The CM also assured that all pending issues of the city would be resolved in 3 months.

Hence Manda Mhatre is assured of the BJP candidature from the Belapur constituency again in the forthcoming Assembly polls.

BJP

The pre-Lok Sabha poll pact of the alliance reportedly mentioned that there would be a 50 – 50 seat sharing between the BJP and the SS in the 288 seats State Assembly. The BJP won 23 out of the 25 seats it contested and the SS won 18 out of the 23 seats it contested. In the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies of Maharashtra State. The alliance partners led in 229 assembly constituencies out of a total of 288 assembly constituencies. This prompted the CM to announce that the BJP – SS – RPI(A) alliance would bag 220 seats in the forthcoming State Assembly polls.

This would have meant that the Assemblies where the SS and BJP had big lead over the rival candidate in the just concluded Lok Sabha polls would be allocated to that respective party.

Since Rajan Vichare of SS had a lead of nearly 1 lakh votes in the Airoli and Belapur constituencies, the SS may have wanted to stake claim to both the constituencies. This was evident from the aggressive campaigning by Vijay Nahata, the deputy leader of the SS, in the Belapur constituency. This could have meant the elbowing out of the sitting BJP legislator Manda Mhatre from the race. Also the same scenario could have played out in constituencies where the BJP Lok Sabha candidates won by huge margins. Thus leading to heart-breaks and rough turmoils in both the alliance partners in the allocation of seats.

Arch rivals Vijay Nahata and Manda Mhatre seemingly would have been unwilling to let go their claim. And any fissure in the alliance in the constituency would only work in favour of the Nationalist Congress Party – Congress front candidate, who most probably will be Ganesh Naik again.

Bjp

There was a keen 3-cornered contest in the last assembly elections in the Belapur constituency between Manda Mhatre, Ganesh Naik and Vijay Nahata, when there was no alliance and no front All parties contested on their own. Manda Mhatre of BJP polled 55316 votes, Ganesh Naik of NCP polled 53825 votes and Vijay Nahata of SS polled 50983 votes. Namdev Bhagat of Congress (he is presently in SS) polled 16603 votes.

Thus the BJP and SS had a vote share of 29.08 % and 26.80 % respectively. The NCP and Congress had a vote share of 28.30 %and 8.73 % respectively.

The MNS candidate Gajanan Kale polled 4193 votes with a vote share of 2.21 %. The BSP candidate Deepak Sawant polled 2053 votes with a vote share of 1.08 %.

It will be an almost impossible task for the NCP -Congress front to defeat the BJP alliance in the Belapur constituency. But any split in the alliance on seat sharing could have raised hopes in the NCP-Congress front. The finalization of the seat sharing formula between the BJP and the SS has put to rest any possibility of a split.

Generally rebel candidates tend to make little impact in this constituency as per past poll results. Hence rebellion by disgruntled candidates will have little effect on the poll outcome.

However the SS is undoubtedly a strong force in the city, particularly in the Airoli Assembly constituency, where the SS is all geared up to unseat the sitting NCP legislator Sandeep Naik. The Airoli Assembly constituency may also witness a rat race for the SS candidature, where M.K.Madhavi is presently a front-runner.